Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009

After a glorious two days of an unforgettable series of Breeders’ Cup classics, closing day of 2009 Oak Tree meeting is upon us, and that means a mandatory payout in the Pick-6.

The first race boils down to #6 Fight On and #9 Fenice and we’ll hook them up in an exacta box. Fight On, re-claimed by Carava, switches to Rosario, likes this track and should be forwardly placed throughout in a field without much speed. He’s a tough, veteran gelding and should be primed for a big try. Fenice drops again in class while seeking his winning level, switches to Bejarano, and should be dangerous from off the pace.

The second race is a 12-furlong turfer for entry level allowance stayers. The two most logical contenders - #2 Power Blitz (unraced since May) and #3 Dynamic Range ( beaten choice last pair) are difficult to trust, so if you’re playing the rolling exotics use as many as you can afford to. Anybody can win it.

We’ll go three deep in the third race, a state bred maiden dash, using #2 Evening Jewel; #5 Stunning Ally; and #8 Top Seeded. Evening Jewel is improving with racing for Cassidy and with another forward move today could be tough to deny. Stunning Ally had a rough trip in her debut and seems sure to improve with experience for Julio. She adds blinkers and may have the most upside in the field. Top Seeded ran well in high priced maiden claiming company in her only start, lands the cozy outside post, and fits at this level on speed figures.

The fourth race appears to have three main contenders. #5 Sky Marni drops off a solid runner up effort vs. slightly stronger foes last month and if she can turn in two alike she’ll be right there. #9 Msty Aly beat a bottom rung group recently and her winning spirit always must be respected. She’s up a notch but should fit well with these. #10 Swiss Blend takes a sharp drop in class and figures to stick much better at this level.

The fifth race is a state bred maiden dash down the hill and should be won by either #3 Dohnster, #4 Red Sun, or #9 Amazombie. Dohnster has run well over the course in the past against open company, retains Rosario, and exits one of the strongest, most productive maiden races at Del Mar. Red Sun was best when beaten in his only start in January, was a vet scratch when entered back a few weeks later and launches a comeback for Gaines following a series of sharp drills. He looks like a high potential type and would appear to be the one to beat. Amazombie, a route to sprint play, retains Talamo and should be rolling in the lane.

We’ll single #5 Ballistic Heat in the sixth race as the veteran gelding seeks his third straight score. He’s a prototype late-running sprinter, lands Bejarano, and should be able to tag the speed in the final furlong.

The seventh race is a starter’s allowance mile affair on the lawn and we’ll use #4` Paddy’s Magic and #5 Megilliah in our rolling exotics. The former crushed a maiden claiming field recently in just his third lifetime start and earned a sharp figure in the process. He’s trying two-turns and turf for the first time but could make the running and never look back if not pressured early. Megillah ran well at the level down the hill in an improved effort last month and will be hard to handle with another forward move today.

The Cascapedia Stakes goes as the eighth race and the two we’ll use are the comebacking #1 Kays and Jays and the recent first level allowance winner #8 Emmy Darling. Kays and Jays has a touch of class but she’s been away since the summer and hasn’t really been all that impressive in the morning for her return. She also has the overcome the rail. Emmy Darling gets the good outside draw, has a nice score over the track and has worked like she’s ready make another forward move.

The ninth race is a downhill turf scramble for state bred fillies and mares. We’ll pass, but #6 Easy Ashley, from the Wesley Ward, would appear to be the one to beat based on her outstanding turf form.

The meet’s finale is a maiden claimer that figures to be dominated by #1 Flyinginformation and #8 Bit of a Lady. The former returns to her claim level for Mitchell and deserves top billing despite the rail. Bit of a Lady missed by a head in a similar spot last month, retains Espinoza, and should be in the fray once again.

See you Dec. 26 for opening day at Santa Anita!
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