Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009

Thursday’s opener is a better than average maiden sprint for older fillies and mares and should be dominated by #2 Gilded Gem and #5 Fund Raiser. A fast working first timer from the Baffert barn, Gilded Gem appears fit and ready and is bred to win early, being by Smarty Jones from the dam of Golden Ballet. Her Baffert barn mate, Fund Raiser, has the benefit of a race over the track and seems sure to move forward, as most Baffert second time starters do.

Let’s take a stab with #7 Lone Justice at 8-1 on the morning line in the second race. The first timer from the Sadler barn has trained better than the times would indicate, according to the private clockers, and should have enough of a foundation to be set for a big effort first crack out of the box. Bred for speed (Roman Ruler) in an unclassified event, Lone Justice might turn out to be something in a nothing race.

The third and fourth races offer little value, so we’ll pass them both.

The fifth race, a downhill turf dash, should be won by either #1 Once Upon A Grace or #4 Good Time Sally, but if you’re playing the rolling exotics you might want to spread a little deeper. Once Upon A Grace must leave from the rail post (not the place to be sprinting down the hill) but she is improving as she gets acclimated and figures to be running on strongly late under Dettori. Good Time Sally is a route to sprint play, retains Bejarano, is a fit on figures, and also should be a late factor.

#3 Saxophone looks well spotted for a big effort in the sixth race, a low level claiming sprint. He was overmatched for $16,000 last time out but returns to his proper level today and retains Pedroza. A good recent work after a brief freshening should have him right on edge.

Let’s triple the seventh race in our rolling exotics, using #1 Muny; #3 Ever a Friend, and #7 Tenga Cat. Muny returns sprinting after a long layoff for Puype and the works indicate fitness. He looks like a live item under Gomez. Ever a Friend is another launching a comeback and this Mitchell-trained gelding has trained like he’s fit and ready for a big try off the bench. He’s primarily a miler but has won down the hill in the past. Tenga Cat removes blinkers after chasing home California Flag in the Morvich ‘Cap earlier this meeting. He figures to go much better in this slightly softer spot.

The eighth race is a modest bottom rung maiden claiming miler and the three we’ll use are #2 Zohan, #3 Broadway Promise, and #11 Ry’s Not Shy. Zohan was nosed out at this level earlier this meeting and a similar try today could land him in the winner’s circle. Broadway Promise has good tactical speed and should stick around a long time in a soft event. Ry’s Not Shy, second in his last pair with improving numbers, must overcome the outside draw but with another forward move he’ll be hard to contain, outside post and all.