Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Friday, Nov. 6, 2009

The first of two days of Breeders’ Cup action presents a challenging series of six races with plenty of price opportunities and a couple of solid singles within the Pick-6 scheme.

The first BC race – which goes as the third race on the program – is the Marathon and should be dominated by the Europeans. #5 Father Time is a winner of his only synthetic track race (his debut) and was just a cut below top class among English stayers. He arrives fit and ready for a big race and brings with him better credentials than last year’s Marathon winner from overseas, Muhannak. #6 Mastery actually has a resume that would make him a threat in the BC Turf, but he shows up here and is the likely choice and strictly the one to beat following his victory in the Group-1 St. Leger at Doncaster. Also worth using in your rolling exotics is the up-and-coming #9 Man of Iron, a half-brother to Rags to Riches and Jaazil, both Belmont Stakes winners. Man of Iron won with complete authority at 11 furlongs in an overnight race over the all weather at Dundalk last month and with another forward move – quite likely for this progressive sort – the son of Giant’s Causeway could spring a nice surprise at 8-1 on the morning line.

The BC Juvenile Fillies Turf has plenty of talent – some of it untested – but the one they all have to beat is the Euro import #8 Lillie Langtry, a triple stakes winner overseas and listed as low as 7-1 in some British books for next year’s Guineas. She likes to settle early and blast home and that kind of style should be very effective over this glib turf course. #4 Rose Catherine earned a giant speed figure graduating in blazing time over the Belmont Park turf course last month and she’s clearly the speed of the speed on the stretch out for Pletcher. We’ll also use the unbeaten #7 House of Grace, who won the off-the-turf Jessamine at Keeneland impressively and before that scored in her debut over the Saratoga lawn by five widening lengths.

The fifth race on the program is the BC Juvenile Fillies and any one of eight or nine could win it without registering a major surprise. We’ll try to boil it down to three main contenders, using #3 Blind Luck; #6 Connie and Michael, and #12 Biofuel. Blind Luck won the Oak Leaf Stakes last month in her first try around two turns and has the home court advantage. She continues to train sharply and likely has another forward move in her. Connie and Michael ran off and hid from maidens in her debut for McPeak and could be any kind. She looks like the controlling speed on the stretch out and may never look back. Biofuel was a 23-1 upset winner of the Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine, displaying an impressive late kick, and if the pace comes up hot, she’ll be rolling late at what should be a very nice price.

The BC Filly & Mare Turf goes as the sixth race and defending champion #2 Forever Together might be vulnerable after disappointing in her last pair. She’s a hard one to dismiss, but we simply like the high class European invader #6 Midday better and would nominate her as one of our singles in the rolling exotics. Beaten a head in the English Oaks last summer, the Henry Cecil-trained filly became a Group-1 winner when taking the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood and lost little in defeat when a close up third in the Group-1 Prix de l’Opera on Arc weekend. She’ll handle top of the ground, has a exceptional turn of foot and should be along in time.

The seventh race, the BC Filly & Mare Sprint, seems made to order for the defending race champion, #9 Ventura. She perfect over this track, loves this extended sprint distance, lands the cozy outside post, and reportedly has been training better than ever. She enters the fray fresh from her victory over the boys in the Woodbine Mile and figures to produce the last run over a Pro Ride surface that plays kindly to her rally-wide style. There’s plenty of contention, to be sure, but Ventura seems like a logical single.

The final BC race of the afternoon is the Ladies Classic, and with Zenyatta opting for the Classic on Saturday, her stable mate, #2 Life Is Sweet, has a chance to get back on the winning track. She’s certainly had her fill of Zenyatta, having finished behind her in three of her last four starts, but she’s run much better than the lines would indicate and with clear sailing and plenty of pace today she might be capable of producing the last run. We’ll use her in all of our rolling exotics along with the brilliantly fast front-runner #1 Careless Jewel, and the high class Godolphin filly #7 Music Note. Careless Jewel will take them as far as she can and if she’s not pressured early she might turn this race into a parade. Music Not should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip and her recent Beldame victory earned a career top speed figure, so you know she’s never been better.