Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2009

Wednesday’s program ushers in Breeders’ Cup week and the first race finds the debuting Bob Baffert-trained colt, #5 Onemoreforarch, listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. The works are okay, nothing special, and while he certainly can win from a lackluster field, there isn’t any value, so we’ll pass the event.

#5 Live Sundays seems well spotted for a win in the second race at 5/2 on the morning line. The Bay Area invader earned a series of solid numbers while moving up the conditioned allowance ranks and with another forward move today the High Brite gelding can continue his streak. He looks like an intriguing rolling exotic single.

The third race kicks off the Pick-6 sequence and we’ll try #6 Michael’s Rose as a single. The Drysdale-trained filly, second in her last pair, didn’t get the best of runs when beaten as the choice over the course recently but with clear sailing today should be able to produce the last run. She’s 8/5 on the morning line and might go lower.

#3 Proud Hillbilly looked good graduating in fast time for the level last month and should be set for an encore performance in the fourth race, a first level allowance affair. The Proud Citizen gelding retains Pedroza, has a nice, easy, steady work tab since his win and figures to be on or near the lead throughout.

We’ll double the fifth race using #5 Smokenomore and #6 Trueno, and you can spread even more in your rolling exotics if you can afford to. Smokenomore is a route to sprint play, retains Migliore, and has a big look in a weak affair. Trueno, second in two of his last three starts, is an 11-race maiden and may be hard to trust, but he won’t have to improve much at all to break through with a win.

The sixth race, a downhill turf dash, is another open affair and we’ll try to survive using #3 Rainbow Goose and #4 Flashmans Papers. Rainbow Goose looked good winning under similar circumstances last month and warrants a big look right back. Flashmans Papers also won over the course last time out and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be in the battle once again.

The seventh race is a first level allowance router for juveniles and marks the local debut of impressive Turfway Park debut winner #1 Connemara. The Pletcher-trained colt overcame a slow start to win as much the best with a strong rating and appears to be a colt with some considerable promise. He’ll have to beat #4 Ranger Heartley, a romping 12 length starter’s allowance winner for Sadler last time out and a bold threat right back despite tackling tougher.

The eighth race looks like a good spot for #6 Objectified and the one he may have to fear most is the first timer #4 Brayden Buddy. Objectified is a route to sprint play while removing blinkers and has a look off his solid third place effort at Del Mar two races back. Brayden Buddy is a first timer with a decent series of drills for Cerin and won’t have to be a world beater to act at this level.