Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009

Sunday’s first race has only five entrants and any one of three seems capable of winning it, so we’ll pass the event. #1 Saintly Spirit, popular at the claim box recently, is double jumped in class by Spawr despite being out of jail, always a positive angle from this barn. #3 Lexlenos tries the Pro Ride for the first time and if she can duplicate her turf form on the main track, she’ll be right there. #5 Lullabytime has good recent form, goes for Carava off the claim and retains Bejarano. If you’re playing any rolling exotics I would suggest including all three.

#4 Raise the River is a 13 race maiden and very difficult to trust, but he’s back sprinting where he belongs and on speed figures he’s strictly the one to beat (again). A recent sharp work should have him on edge for another strong try and maybe today is the day he finally breaks through. #7 Valkyrie Missile has worked extremely well for his comeback and could very well be a much better type this time around.

The third race – the Anoakia Stakes for 2-year-old fillies – looks like a match race between #2 Well Deserved and #5 Crisis of Spirit and they should comprise a very short exacta. Well Deserved is plenty quick and is back with Rosario, who has won with her in the past. Crisis of Spirit had the good fortune of drawing the comfortable outside post and is the likely choice and strictly the one to beat following a very impressive recent maiden score for Baffert.

We’ll double the fourth race using #2 You Can Dream and #4 Tribul Witch. You Can Dream takes another class drop, somewhat suspiciously, but if she has one more good one left in her, the Baffert-trained filly could be tough to catch. Tribul Witch ran well at the level last month, has trained nicely since, and seems sure to make another forward mover today for Julio.

The fifth race looks like an open affair and we’ll go three deep and hope to keep our rolling exotics rolling. #1 Debating Society fits solidly at the level, switches to Bejarano and if she can avoid trouble from the rail she’ll be right there. #4 Tallahsocean, first off the claim for Hollendorfer, is a perfect 2-for-2 over this track and looks very dangerous on the raise with the switch to Rosario. She’s the likely choice and one to beat. #5 Quickly Gone moves up a notch following a game score and should be part of the pace throughout.

The sixth race is a starter’s allowance down the hill and should be dominated by #4 Coracao Beijo and #7 Lady Alex and both should be used in the rolling exotics. Coracao Beijo, a route to sprint play and freshened since mid-August, has some back numbers that make her a threat and with one of her better efforts today figures in the frame. Lady Alex missed as the favorite in a highly-rated dash recently and will be a short price to make amends today.

We’ll double the seventh race, a pretty good maiden juvenile dash, using the Sadler first timer #6 Lt. Anne and Canani-trained Cenizo, who has the benefit of a previous outing. Lt. Anne has displayed talent in a series of drills and seems cranked up for a big effort first crack out of the box. Cenizo exits a hot race, seems better than shown, and deserves another look following a good recent drill.

The eighth race is a downhill turf scramble that we simply can’t get a handle on. Spread if you’re playing any rolling exotics; we’re going to pass.

The ninth race is a weak maiden claiming miler for juvenile maiden claimers and the two we came up with are #1a Sheskey and #4 Private Valentine. The former, in the money in her last four, won’t have to improve much to earn her diploma. Private Valentine stretches out for Yakteen, switches to Bajarano, and has the pedigree to improve with added distance.