Jeff Siegel's Oak Tree Analysis for Friday, Oct. 23, 2009

An attractive $54,969 Pick-6 Carryover spices up the Friday program and we’ll concentrate on races 3 thru 8 in an attempt to construct an affordable ticket.

There’s not much happening in the first two races, a weak maiden claimer and turf sprint with little value, so let’s move ahead to the third race an use #1 Swiss Ski and #4 All Money No Love in an exacta box and in our rolling exotics. Swiss Ski comes off a clever win at the level and if he can turn in two alike, he’ll be double tough right back. All Money No Love drops to the bottom after a brief freshening, fits very well on numbers and will be right there with anything close to his best race.

#2 High Five Gal looks like a rolling exotic single in the fourth race, a maiden claimer for juvenile fillies. The O’Neill-trained daughter of High Brite has plenty of zip and should stick much better following a series of attempts at the straight maiden and stakes level. Pedroza should have her on or near the lead throughout at 5/2 on the morning line.

The fifth race, a straight maiden dash down the Hillside course, should be a battle between #3 Pink Diamond, #9 Devine Actress, and #10 Storm the Church, and all three should be included on your rolling exotic tickets. Pink Diamond ran well sprinting on turf two races back and she gets similar conditions today while switching to Smith. Devine Actress is a well regarded first time starter with a series of impressive works and looks like a live item for Hofmans at 7/2 on the morning line. Storm the Church has shown she can run some for Mullins and should be forwardly placed throughout from her comfortable outside post.

The sixth race is a bottom level claiming dash and should be won by either #1 Stand Tall or #2 Midwesterner. The former drops to his lowest level ever for Canani, has won over this track in the past, and should bounce back in a big way in a soft field. Midwesterner gets his favorite distance and should be very dangerous from off the pace.

We’ll single #7 Don’t Forget Faith in the seventh race, a 10 furlong turf event for conditioned allowance fillies and mares. The Cecil-trained filly won a mini-marathon at Del Mar in game style, has trained steadily since, and should be able to produce the last run under Bejarano.

The eighth race looks like a battle between #8 Palladian General and #9 One Shot and both should be used in the rolling exotics. Palladian General continues to work well for Gaines and can be expected to improve with this rather substantial drop in class. In his third start off a layoff and with Talamo staying aboard, he looks like the best of the closers. One Shot might wind up the controlling speed after being nosed out against softer earlier this month. He’s double jumped in class by Avila, a positive sign, and represents good value at 6-1 on the morning line.